TRENDS IN MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY FROM CHRONIC HEART FAILURE IN ALMATY

Abstract

Introduction. Heart failure (HF) is a significant public health problem, especially in the context of increasing life expectancy and an aging population. Data provided by the European Society of Cardiology shows a median prevalence of HF in 2019 of 17 cases per 1,000 people, with differences across countries. There is also an increase in the number of cases of cardiovascular diseases in Kazakhstan. Aim. To analyze the incidence of diseases and the death rate from chronic heart failure (CHF) in the city of Almaty. Materials and methods. A retrospective study was conducted. We analyzed the incidence and mortality from CHF in Almaty from 2013 to 2022 based on data provided by the National Scientific Center for Health Development, a branch in Almaty. CHF mortality was predicted for the next five years using the TREND function in Excel. We also used a natural logarithmic linear model to analyze the constant percentage change in velocity over time. A p value of less than 0.05 is considered statistically significant. Results. A study of the incidence and mortality from CHF in Almaty from 2013 to 2023 revealed an increase in the incidence from 9885 to 15332 cases, reaching a peak decrease in 2015 to 7748. While the death rate decreased from 6.5 to 3.0 per 100,000 population. The forecast for the next five years shows the likelihood of a further increase in morbidity. The number of patients registered at the dispensary with congestive heart failure has increased from 232 to 7160, and further growth is expected by 2027. There is also an increase in treated cases. Conclusion. A further increase in the incidence and mortality from CHF is predicted in the next five years, which underscores the need to implement cardiorehabilitation programs involving multidisciplinary teams and patient-centered care principles to improve the quality of life of patients with CHF. Working to reduce risk factors such as alcohol consumption, smoking, and improved nutrition, with the participation of all stakeholders, contributes to improving performance.